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Pancreatic Disease Burden in Older Adults (1990-2040)

Global, Regional, and National Burdens of Pancreatic Cancer and Pancreatitis Among Older Adults From 1990 to 2021 With Projections to 2040: A Comprehensive and Comparative Investigation

Status
Completed
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT07177599
Enrollment
723415
Registered
2025-09-17
Start date
1990-01-01
Completion date
2025-09-11
Last updated
2025-09-17

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Pancreatic Cancer, Pancreatitis

Brief summary

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the investigators analyzed age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for pancreatic cancer and pancreatitis in adults aged ≥70 years across 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex, Socio-Demographic Index (SDI), health system performance, and region. The investigators calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), applied age-period-cohort modelling, and used Bayesian models to project future burden. Attributable burdens for key risk factors were also estimated.

Interventions

BIOLOGICALNatural history

Natural history of pancreatic diseases

Sponsors

Changhai Hospital
Lead SponsorOTHER

Study design

Observational model
COHORT
Time perspective
PROSPECTIVE

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Age
70 Years to No maximum
Healthy volunteers
No

Inclusion criteria

* Diagnosis with pancreatic cancer or pancreatitis * Diagnosis in 1990 through 2021 * Age 70+ years

Exclusion criteria

* Age \<70 years * Other non-pancreatic diseases

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Incidence1990-2021The number of new cases of a givencause during a given period in aspecified population. It is xpressed as the number of newcases in a year divided by the mid-year population size.
Deaths1990-2021Deaths occurring in a population during a certain time period.
Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)1990-2021The sum of years lost due to premature death (YLLs) and yearslived with disability (YLDs). DALYs are also defined as years of healthy life lost.

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Feb 4, 2026