Risk Factor Analysis and Clinical Predictive Model Development for In-Hospital Progression from Cellulitis to Necrotizing Fasciitis in Adults

Status

Active, not recruiting

Phases

Unknown

Study type

Observational

Source

TCTR

Registry ID

TCTR20250605001

Enrollment

1117

Registered

2025-06-05

Start date

2025-05-31

Completion date

Unknown

Last updated

2026-08-03

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Progression from cellulitis to necrotizing fasciitis in adult patients hospitalized with cellulitis. Cellulitis Fasciitis, Necrotizing Disease Progression Predictive Value of Tests Models, Statistical Risk Assessment Hospitalization Adult

Interventions

Adult patients hospitalized with an initial diagnosis of cellulitis at Chaiyaphum Hospital between January 1, 2566 and December 31, 2567. Patients with a diagnosis of necrotizing fasciitis on admissio

Diagnostic

Adult Hospitalized Cellulitis Patients

Eligibility

Sex/Gender

All

Age

18 Years to No maximum

Inclusion criteria

Inclusion criteria: 1. Primary diagnosis of cellulitis (L03.1, L03.9) 2. Hospitalized at Chaiyaphum Hospital between Jan 1, 2023 to Dec 31, 2024

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion criteria: 1. Initial diagnosis of necrotizing fasciitis (M72.6, M72.9) 2. Incomplete or inconsistent medical records 3. Incompatible ICD-10 coding

Design outcomes

Primary

Measure	Time frame
In-hospital progression from cellulitis to necrotizing fasciitis in adult patients During hospitalization (from admission with initial diagnosis of cellulitis until discharge) ICD-10 diagnostic codes (M72.6, M72.9) with medical chart review confirmation	—

Secondary

Measure	Time frame
Identification of independent risk factors for progression from cellulitis to necrotizing fasciitis At completion of statistical analysis Multivariate logistic regression analysis with adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals,Discrimination performance of the clinical prediction model for progression from cellulitis to necrotizing fasciitis At model validation Area under the ROC curve with 95% confidence intervals using bootstrapping and repeated k-fold cross-validation, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value,Calibration performance of the clinical prediction model At model validation Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plot,Risk stratification capability of the prediction model At model validation Classification of patients into low, moderate, and high-risk groups with corresponding observed event rates in each group,Clinical utility of the prediction score At model validation Decision curve analysis	—

Measure

Time frame

Identification of independent risk factors for progression from cellulitis to necrotizing fasciitis At completion of statistical analysis Multivariate logistic regression analysis with adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals,Discrimination performance of the clinical prediction model for progression from cellulitis to necrotizing fasciitis At model validation Area under the ROC curve with 95% confidence intervals using bootstrapping and repeated k-fold cross-validation, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value,Calibration performance of the clinical prediction model At model validation Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plot,Risk stratification capability of the prediction model At model validation Classification of patients into low, moderate, and high-risk groups with corresponding observed event rates in each group,Clinical utility of the prediction score At model validation Decision curve analysis

—

Countries

Thailand

Contacts

Public ContactSripakorn Onlamai

Chaiyaphum Hospital, Ministry of Public Health

sripakorn.onlamai@gmail.com0870130399

Outcome results

None listed

Source: TCTR (via WHO ICTRP) · Data processed: Aug 10, 2026