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Cardiovascular Mortality Prediction in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients

Development of a Mortality Prediction Model for Patients Receiving Maintenance Hemodialysis

Status
Completed
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT07769190
Enrollment
192
Registered
2026-08-17
Start date
2021-07-16
Completion date
2022-04-21
Last updated
2026-08-17

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Cardiovascular Disease, End-Stage Kidney Disease (ESKD), Secondary Hyperparathyroidism (SHPT)

Keywords

Maintenance Hemodialysis, Cardiovascular Mortality, Serum Phosphate

Brief summary

This prospective, single-center observational cohort study evaluates cardiovascular mortality risk in adults receiving maintenance hemodialysis. During the first year after enrollment, four scheduled assessments are used to characterize demographic factors, dialysis treatment, medication use, routine laboratory measures, and the proportion of serum phosphate measurements within the protocol-defined target range. Participants are subsequently followed for cardiovascular mortality. The study evaluates factors associated with serum phosphate target achievement and develops a cardiovascular mortality prediction model in the overall cohort, with a prespecified subgroup analysis among participants who undergo parathyroidectomy. No treatment or procedure is assigned by the study investigators.

Detailed description

This is a prospective observational cohort study conducted at the Hemodialysis Center of Huashan Hospital, Fudan University. Adults aged 18 to 85 years who have received maintenance hemodialysis for at least 3 months and meet the eligibility criteria are enrolled after providing written informed consent. During the first year after enrollment, four scheduled assessments are performed. Data collected include demographic and clinical characteristics, dialysis treatment parameters, medication use, complete blood count, routine biochemical measurements, immunologic measurements, and other clinically relevant indicators. The principal exposure is the one-year serum phosphate target achievement rate, defined as the number of evaluable serum phosphate measurements within the protocol-defined target range divided by the total number of evaluable scheduled measurements during the one-year assessment period. Following the one-year exposure-assessment period, participants are followed for cardiovascular mortality for up to 5 years. The primary objective is to evaluate the association between the one-year serum phosphate target achievement rate and cardiovascular mortality and to develop a cardiovascular mortality prediction model. Secondary objectives include identifying factors associated with serum phosphate target achievement and developing a mortality prediction model in the prespecified subgroup of participants who undergo parathyroidectomy as part of routine clinical care. Descriptive analyses and appropriate parametric or nonparametric tests are used to summarize and compare participant characteristics. Multivariable regression is used to evaluate factors associated with serum phosphate target achievement. Cox proportional hazards regression and prespecified statistical or machine-learning methods are used to evaluate cardiovascular mortality risk and develop prognostic models. All statistical tests are two-sided with an alpha level of 0.05. No study-specific treatment is assigned, and clinical management is determined independently by the treating physicians.

Interventions

OTHEROne-Year Serum Phosphate Target Achievement Rate

The one-year serum phosphate target achievement rate is calculated as the number of evaluable scheduled serum phosphate measurements within the protocol-defined target range divided by the total number of evaluable scheduled measurements during the first year after enrollment. Four scheduled assessments are planned. Serum phosphate management is determined by routine clinical care and is not assigned by the study investigators.

PROCEDUREParathyroidectomy

Parathyroidectomy received as part of routine clinical care is recorded for prespecified subgroup analysis. The decision to perform parathyroidectomy is made by the treating clinical team and is not assigned by the study investigators.

Sponsors

Huashan Hospital
Lead SponsorOTHER

Study design

Observational model
COHORT
Time perspective
PROSPECTIVE

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Age
18 Years to 85 Years
Healthy volunteers
No

Inclusion criteria

1. Receipt of maintenance hemodialysis for at least 3 months. 2. Adequate ability to understand the study and communicate with the investigators. 3. Provision of written informed consent.

Exclusion criteria

1. Age younger than 18 years or older than 85 years. 2. Pregnancy or plans to become pregnant during the relevant study period. 3. Participation in another clinical research study within the preceding month. 4. Presence of a disease or clinical condition considered likely to materially affect serum phosphate concentrations. 5. Any other condition that, in the investigator's judgment, makes participation inappropriate.

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Cardiovascular MortalityUp to 5 years after completion of the 1-year exposure-assessment periodOccurrence and date of death attributed to cardiovascular disease during follow-up, ascertained through study follow-up and available clinical or death records.

Secondary

MeasureTime frameDescription
One-Year Serum Phosphate Target Achievement RateDuring the first year after enrollmentThe number of evaluable scheduled serum phosphate measurements within the protocol-defined target range divided by the total number of evaluable scheduled measurements during the first year after enrollment. Four scheduled assessments are planned for each participant.
Mortality in the Parathyroidectomy SubgroupUp to 5 years after completion of the 1-year exposure-assessment periodOccurrence and date of death during follow-up among participants who undergo parathyroidectomy as part of routine clinical care. These data are used for prespecified subgroup prognostic modeling.

Countries

China

Contacts

PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATORJing Chen

Huashan Hospital

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Aug 18, 2026