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Predictive Model For Anastomotic Leakage After Colorectal Cancer Surgery

Simplified Predictive Model For Anastomotic Leakage After Colorectal Cancer Surgery: A Pilot Retrospective Study

Status
Completed
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT07709923
Acronym
Doesn't exist
Enrollment
117
Registered
2026-07-17
Start date
2024-01-01
Completion date
2025-12-31
Last updated
2026-07-17

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Colorectal (Colon or Rectal) Cancer, Leak, Anastomotic, Surgery Complications

Brief summary

This pilot study aimed to develop a simplified early postoperative model for AL risk stratification using readily available clinical and laboratory variables.

Detailed description

This retrospective single-centre cohort included 117 patients who underwent colorectal cancer resection with primary anastomosis between January 2024 and December 2025. Patients with protective stomas or incomplete data were excluded. Demographic, clinical, surgical, and first-postoperative-day laboratory variables were analysed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with AL and to assess model performance.

Interventions

None listed

Sponsors

University of Foggia
Lead SponsorOTHER

Study design

Observational model
COHORT
Time perspective
CROSS_SECTIONAL

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Healthy volunteers
Yes

Inclusion criteria

1. colorectal cancer resection 2. construction of a primary anastomosis 3. availability of clinical and laboratory data from the first postoperative day

Exclusion criteria

1. staged procedures without primary anastomosis 2. Hartmann's procedure 3. protective stoma at the index operation 4. incomplete data for the variables required for model construction.

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Number of Participants Who Developed Clinically Significant Anastomotic Leakage Requiring Surgical Reintervention and/or Stoma Creation2 yearsNumber of participants who developed clinically significant anastomotic leakage after colorectal cancer surgery. Anastomotic leakage was defined as an anastomotic defect confirmed by clinical, radiological, intraoperative, or postoperative findings requiring surgical reintervention and/or stoma creation.

Secondary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) of the Predictive Model2 yearsDiscriminative ability of the simplified logistic regression model for predicting clinically significant anastomotic leakage
Sensitivity of the Predictive Model for Clinically Significant Anastomotic Leakage2 yearsSensitivity of the predictive model in identifying participants who developed clinically significant anastomotic leakage.
Specificity of the Predictive Model for Clinically Significant Anastomotic Leakage2 yearsSpecificity of the predictive model in identifying participants who did not develop clinically significant anastomotic leakage.
Brier Score of the Predictive Model2 yersCalibration performance of the predictive model assessed using the Brier score.
Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness-of-Fit Test of the Predictive Model2 yearsCalibration performance of the predictive model assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

Countries

Italy

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Jul 18, 2026