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Real-Time Acute Kidney Injury Perioperative Prediction Clinical Trial

Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) After Surgery: A Pragmatic Three-Arm Cluster-Randomized Trial

Status
Not yet recruiting
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Interventional
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT07604662
Acronym
ML-AKI
Enrollment
25518
Registered
2026-05-22
Start date
2026-10-15
Completion date
2027-12-15
Last updated
2026-05-22

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Acute Kidney Injury, Anesthesia, Surgery Complications

Keywords

Acute Kidney Injury, Surgical Outcomes, Machine Learning, Clinical Decision Support, Electronic Health Records

Brief summary

This investigator-initiated, pragmatic trial evaluates whether displaying a machine learning (ML)- derived perioperative AKI risk score-alone or paired with an interruptive Best/Our Practice Advisory (BPA/OPA)-improves kidney-protective care and reduces kidney injury after non-obstetric surgery at UCSF. Approximately 75-100 attending anesthesiologists (clusters) are randomized 1:1:1 to: (a) Control (risk score hidden), (b) Score Only (visible preoperative AKI risk probability with passive KDIGO bundle recommendation), or (c) Score + BPA (visible risk plus interruptive KDIGO prompt for high-risk patients). CRNAs/residents follow their attending' s assignment. Adult inpatients (age ≥18) with expected overnight stay and eGFR ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m² are included; obstetrics, chronic dialysis, and kidney transplant patients are excluded. The underlying preoperative model was prospectively validated at UCSF and outperforms anesthesiologist risk estimation reported in the literature. The model was reviewed and approved by the AI Oversight Committee at UCSF. Primary endpoint is the continuous change in serum creatinine (mg/dL) from baseline to POD 1-2. Secondary outcomes include KDIGO-defined AKI, adherence to bundle elements (hemodynamics, balanced fluids, nephrotoxin avoidance, glycemic control), intraoperative hypotension time, fluid volumes, nephrotoxin exposure, perioperative hyperglycemia, length of stay, unplanned ICU transfer, readmission, dialysis, and in-hospital mortality. Data are obtained from the EHR; analysts are blinded. No direct subject interaction is planned; the investigators will request a waiver of patient consent. The study aims to demonstrate that ML-enabled, workflow-embedded decision support can safely and feasibly improve guideline concordant care and decrease early postoperative kidney injury.

Interventions

DEVICEEHR-Embedded AKI Risk Score

A non-adaptive, machine learning-based clinical decision support tool integrated into the electronic health record that generates a preoperative probability of acute kidney injury (AKI) using routinely collected patient data. For patients identified as high risk, the tool displays the risk estimate to anesthesia providers without an accompanying Best Practice Advisory (BPA) recommending consideration of a KDIGO-based kidney-protective bundle. The intervention is advisory only, does not mandate clinical actions, and is designed to support provider decision-making within the existing clinical workflow.

DEVICEEHR-Embedded AKI Risk Score with Best Practice Advisory

A non-adaptive, machine learning-based clinical decision support tool integrated into the electronic health record that generates a preoperative probability of acute kidney injury (AKI) using routinely collected patient data. For patients identified as high risk, the tool displays the risk estimate to anesthesia providers with an accompanying Best Practice Advisory (BPA) recommending consideration of a KDIGO-based kidney-protective bundle. The intervention is advisory only, does not mandate clinical actions, and is designed to support provider decision-making within the existing clinical workflow.

Sponsors

University of California, San Francisco
Lead SponsorOTHER
National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS)
CollaboratorNIH

Study design

Allocation
RANDOMIZED
Intervention model
PARALLEL
Primary purpose
SCREENING
Masking
NONE

Intervention model description

This is a pragmatic, single-center, three-arm, parallel-group, cluster-randomized controlled trial. Attending anesthesiologists are the unit of randomization and are assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to one of three groups: (1) control (AKI risk score not displayed), (2) score only (visible preoperative machine learning-derived AKI risk score with passive KDIGO bundle recommendation), or (3) score plus Best Practice Advisory (visible risk score with an interruptive KDIGO-based alert for high-risk patients). All eligible surgical cases managed by a given attending anesthesiologist inherit that provider's assigned study arm. Trainees and nurse anesthetists follow the assignment of the supervising attending. The intervention is delivered within the electronic health record at the point of care. The clinical decision support tools are advisory only and do not mandate any clinical actions. There is no crossover between groups, and allocation remains fixed for the duration of the study.

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Age
18 Years to No maximum
Healthy volunteers
Yes

Inclusion criteria

* Adults ≥18 years undergoing non-obstetric surgery at UCSF. * Inpatient cases with expected overnight stay. * Baseline eGFR ≥15 mL/min/1.73 m². * Managed by an attending anesthesiologist randomized to one of three arms (CRNAs/residents follow attending). * Data available in the UCSF EHR for risk scoring and outcomes.

Exclusion criteria

* Obstetric procedures. * Chronic dialysis patients. * Kidney transplant recipients. * Cases without baseline creatinine/eGFR or missing essential EHR elements needed for scoring/outcomes (operational exclusions). * Outpatient procedures without expected overnight stay.

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Post-operative Change in CreatinineFrom pre-operative baseline to 1-2 days post-operative levelMaximum continuous change in serum creatinine (mg/dL) from baseline to post-operative day 1-2

Secondary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Acute Kidney InjuryOperation to Post-operative Day 7Acute Kidney Injury as defined by KDIGO
KDIGO Bundle AdherenceIntra-operativeMeasurement of provider adherence to KDIGO components
Intra-Operative Time and Severity of HypotensionIntra-operativeIntra-Operative Time and Severity (meaning how far below the threshold) where patient is in hypotension, defined as systolic blood pressure \<90 mmHg and mean arterial pressure \<65 mmHg during surgery
Total intra-operative intravenous fluid volume administered (mL)Intra-operativeProvider administration of intravenous fluids during the intra-operative period, measured in milliliters (mL). Intravenous fluids include normal saline, lactated Ringer's, Plasma-Lyte, other balanced crystalloids, and colloid solutions such as albumin.
Length of StayOperation to Post-operative Day 180Duration of patient admission in hospital in days
Intra-operative Hyperglycemic EventsIntra-operativeNumber of intra-operative hyperglycemic events, defined as the number of recorded blood glucose measurements exceeding 180 mg/dL.
Intra-operative Nephrotoxin ExposureIntra-operativeNumber of nephrotoxic medications administered intra-operatively and duration of intra-operative exposure
In-Hospital MortalityOperation to Post-operative Day 180Patient death while admitted in the hospital
ICU Transfer and total time in the ICUPostoperativeAny transfers to the ICU while admitted and the total time the patient spends in the ICU
Hospital ReadmissionOperation to Post-operative Day 180Readmission back to a UCSF hospital following operation
Dialysis RequirementOperation to Post-operative Day 180Patients requiring dialysis following surgery
Dilution Corrected KDIGO AKI measurement (Stage 1 or higher)AKI is defined per KDIGO as corrected creatinine increase ≥0.3 mg/dL within 48 hours or ≥1.5× baseline within 7 days. This measure captures "hidden AKI" - kidney injury masked by fluid dilution that would be missed using standard uncorrected creatinine.Acute kidney injury (AKI) assessed using KDIGO creatinine criteria applied to dilution-corrected postoperative serum creatinine. Creatinine is corrected for hemodilution from perioperative fluid retention using the formula: Corrected Creatinine (mg/dL) = Measured Creatinine × (1 + Net Fluid Balance / Total Body Water) Where: * Net Fluid Balance (L) = Fluid inputs - urine output - blood loss - other outputs * Total Body Water (L) = 0.6 × weight (kg) for males; 0.5 × weight (kg) for females
Total intra-operative packed red blood cells administered (units transfused)intraoperativeProvider administration of packed red blood cells during the intra-operative period, measured as total units transfused.
Total intra-operative fresh frozen plasma administered (units transfused)intraoperativeProvider administration of fresh frozen plasma during the intra-operative period, measured as total units transfused.
Total intra-operative platelets administered (units transfused)intraoperativeProvider administration of platelets during the intra-operative period, measured as total units transfused.
Total intra-operative cryoprecipitate administered (units transfused)intraoperativeProvider administration of cryoprecipitate during the intra-operative period, measured as total units transfused.

Countries

United States

Contacts

CONTACTAndrew Bishara, MD
andrew.bishara@ucsf.edu415-502-5880
PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATORAndrew Bishara, MD

University of California, San Francisco

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: May 23, 2026