Prediction of Postoperative Mortality in Patients Undergoing Non-cardiac Surgery: Development and Validation of the Surgical Mortality Model

Development and Validation of the Surgical Mortality Model for Predicting Postoperative Mortality in Non-cardiac Surgery: A Retrospective Multi-center Cohort Study

Status

Completed

Phases

Unknown

Study type

Observational

Source

ClinicalTrials.gov

Registry ID

NCT07188636

Enrollment

642377

Registered

2025-09-23

Start date

2024-07-30

Completion date

2025-01-20

Last updated

2025-09-23

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Mortality Prediction

Keywords

surgery, mortality, prediction, model, non cardiac

Brief summary

This study aims to develop and validate a simple, accurate model to predict mortality after non-cardiac surgery.

Detailed description

This retrospective multi-center cohort study aimed to develop and externally validate a predictive model for postoperative mortality in adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. The development cohort included patients from Asan Medical Center, and validation was performed using data from Seoul National University Hospital and Samsung Medical Center. Mortality was assessed at 30 days, 180 days, 1 year, and overall follow-up. The model was developed using LASSO logistic regression and evaluated for discrimination and calibration across cohorts.

Interventions

OTHERNo Intervention: Observational Cohort

Participants underwent non-cardiac surgery and were followed retrospectively without any experimental intervention. Data were collected from electronic medical records and national death registry to assess postoperative mortality outcomes.

Study design

Observational model

COHORT

Time perspective

RETROSPECTIVE

Eligibility

Sex/Gender

ALL

Age

18 Years to No maximum

Inclusion criteria

* Patients aged 18 years or older who underwent non-cardiac surgery

Exclusion criteria

* Patients who underwent obstetric surgeries * Transplant donors and recipients * Patients with incomplete data or missing laboratory values

Design outcomes

Primary

Measure	Time frame	Description
30-day postoperative mortality	Up to 30 days after surgery	Death from any cause occurring within 30 days after non-cardiac surgery, ascertained from hospital records and national death registry data.

Secondary

Measure	Time frame	Description
180-day postoperative mortality	Up to 180 days after surgery	Death from any cause within 180 days after non-cardiac surgery.
1-year postoperative mortality	Up to 1 year after surgery	Death from any cause within 365 days after non-cardiac surgery.
Overall postoperative mortality	Through study completion (median follow-up: approximately 5 years, maximum: 13 years)	Death from any cause during the entire follow-up period after non-cardiac surgery.

Countries

South Korea

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Feb 4, 2026