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Predict the Best Level of Care Placement for Each Child's Behavioral Health Needs - Effectiveness Study

Placement Success Predictor: Using Site-Customized Machine Learning Models to Predict the Best Level of Care Placement for Each Child's Behavioral Health Needs

Status
Completed
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT06834763
Enrollment
403
Registered
2025-02-19
Start date
2025-02-03
Completion date
2026-02-26
Last updated
2026-08-07

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Adolescent Well-Being, Mental Health Wellness

Brief summary

The purpose of this study is to test the effectiveness of a new clinical decision support tool, Placement Success Predictor (PSP), in a naturalistic setting. PSP will provide placement-specific predictions about the likelihood of a youth having a good outcome in each placement type at a behavioral health center using machine learning algorithms. The primary hypothesis is that clients in at least one placement within one standard deviation of the placement with the highest predicted likelihood of success will have better outcomes than the clients who were not. The secondary hypothesis is that clients' level of improvement over time will be positively correlated with the number of days they are in at least one placement within one standard deviation of the placement with the highest predicted likelihood of success.

Detailed description

In 2017, a total of 669,799 children were confirmed victims of maltreatment in the United States; of the 442,733 children in foster care, 34% have been in more than one placement and 11% are in a group home or institution. Stakes are extremely high for making the best out-of-home placement choice per child because some placement types and multiple placements are associated with poor outcomes. In the past few years, legislation has been created to guide placement decisions for children. Federal law 42 U.S. Code 675 requires that children in the care of the state are placed "in a safe setting that is the least restrictive (most family like)." In addition, the Family First Prevention Services Act signed into law by the U.S. Congress in 2018 includes measures to reduce the number of children in long-term residential settings. This effectiveness study is to assess and improve the usage of PSP in a behavioral health setting. Sample. Clients at Children's Hope Alliance (CHA) who completed the TOP, CHA's standard behavioral health assessment. The target recruitment goal is 700 clients. Methods. PSP results will be available for all clients with recent behavioral health assessment data.

Interventions

PSP is a machine-learning based clinical decision support tool that is designed to assist clinical team members in making placement decisions for youth. PSP provides site-specific placement success prediction scores \[i.e., client's likelihood of success per placement based on machine learning models\] for each youth.

Sponsors

Outcome Referrals, Inc.
Lead SponsorINDUSTRY
Children's Hope Alliance
CollaboratorUNKNOWN
National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH)
CollaboratorNIH

Study design

Observational model
COHORT
Time perspective
PROSPECTIVE

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Healthy volunteers
No

Inclusion criteria

* Completed TOP CS assessment

Exclusion criteria

* None

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Mean Difference in Average Domain Z-scores Across Raters Within Two Weeks on the Clinical Scale of the Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) Between a) Baseline and b) Follow-upAt baseline (within 2 weeks of study start) and approximately 60-120 days laterThe Child Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) is a 48-item scale for children (ages 3 - 18) that assesses 13 domains. The Adolescent TOP-CS is a 58-item scale for adolescents (ages 11 - 21) that assesses 12 domains. TOP-CS assesses the client's past 2-week experience on domains including Depression, Violence, and Suicidality (scores are risk-adjusted for case mix variables assessed via 37 items on the companion TOP-Case Mix form regarding stressful life events, comorbidity). Participants answer "All" to "None of the Time" for each item on a 6-point Likert scale. A domain z-score of 0 represents the general population mean. Domain z-scores are averaged into a summary score per participant. Higher (more positive) average z-scores indicate greater symptom severity and lower behavioral well-being (a worse outcome). The value reported is the mean difference in this average z-score between baseline and follow-up; a negative mean difference indicates improvement (reduced severity).

Secondary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Mean Difference Between the Average Risk-adjusted Predicted TOP-CS Total Score Across Raters at Study Baseline and the Actual Average TOP-CS Total Score Across Raters at Follow-upAt baseline (within 2 weeks of study start) and approximately 60-120 days laterThe Child Treatment Outcome Package (TOP-CS) is a 48-item scale for children (ages 3 - 18) that assesses 13 domains. The Adolescent TOP-CS is a 58-item scale for adolescents (ages 11 - 21) that assesses 12 behavioral health domains. Participants answer "All" to "None of the Time" for each item on a 6-point Likert scale. The TOP-CS Total Score is computed by averaging item responses. The range is 48 to 288 for the Child TOP-CS and 56 to 336 for the Adolescent TOP-CS. Higher Total Scores represent better behavioral well-being (a better outcome). Total Scores are averaged across raters per participant. The value reported is the mean difference between each participant's model-predicted, risk-adjusted Total Score (the outcome expected given their baseline profile) and their actual observed Total Score at follow-up. A positive mean difference indicates that the actual follow-up outcome exceeded the model-predicted outcome (i.e., the participant did better than predicted).

Countries

United States

Participant flow

Recruitment details

Data were collected from all clients as part of standard clinical practice.

Baseline characteristics

Characteristic
Age, Continuous12.28 years
STANDARD_DEVIATION 3.67
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB)
Hispanic or Latino
11 Participants
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB)
Not Hispanic or Latino
55 Participants
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB)
Unknown or Not Reported
0 Participants
Race (NIH/OMB)
American Indian or Alaska Native
5 Participants
Race (NIH/OMB)
Asian
3 Participants
Race (NIH/OMB)
Black or African American
104 Participants
Race (NIH/OMB)
More than one race
16 Participants
Race (NIH/OMB)
Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander
0 Participants
Race (NIH/OMB)
Unknown or Not Reported
14 Participants
Race (NIH/OMB)
White
218 Participants
Sex/Gender, Customized
Female
63 Participants
Sex/Gender, Customized
Male
38 Participants
Sex/Gender, Customized
Unknown/Not reported
16 Participants

Adverse events

Event typeEG000
affected / at risk
EG001
affected / at risk
EG002
affected / at risk
EG003
affected / at risk
deaths
Total, all-cause mortality
0 / 660 / 1290 / 390 / 169
other
Total, other adverse events
0 / 660 / 1290 / 390 / 169
serious
Total, serious adverse events
0 / 660 / 1290 / 390 / 169

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Aug 8, 2026