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Prediction of Patient Deterioration Using Machine Learning

Prediction of Patient Deterioration Using Machine Learning

Status
Completed
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT05045742
Enrollment
526
Registered
2021-09-16
Start date
2021-03-20
Completion date
2026-02-16
Last updated
2026-03-17

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Anticoagulants; Increased, Asthma, Atrial Fibrillation Rapid, Chronic Kidney Diseases, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Gout Flare, Heart Failure, Hypertensive Urgency, Infection

Brief summary

This is a retrospective observational study drawing on data from the Brigham and Women's Home Hospital database. Sociodemographic and clinic data from a training cohort were used to train a machine learning algorithm to predict patient deterioration throughout a patient's admission. This algorithm was then validated in a validation cohort.

Interventions

OTHERTraditional vital sign alarms versus the BioVitals Index vs the National Early Warning Score 2

We will retrospectively compare the alarms produced from traditional vital sign alarms (thresholds set by clinicians) versus the BioVitals Index vs the National Early Warning Score 2

Sponsors

Brigham and Women's Hospital
Lead SponsorOTHER
Biofourmis Inc.
CollaboratorINDUSTRY

Study design

Observational model
COHORT
Time perspective
RETROSPECTIVE

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Age
18 Years to No maximum
Healthy volunteers
No

Inclusion criteria

Cared for in the Brigham and Women's Home Hospital study

Exclusion criteria

Incomplete continuous monitoring data

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Alarm burdenFrom admission to discharge, measured in hours, on average 5 daysThe number of alarms fired per patient per hour

Secondary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Sensitivity for recognition of a safety compositeFrom admission to discharge, on average 5 daysThe sensitivity (true positives divided by condition positives) for detection of a safety composite (overnight visit, extra unplanned visit, transfer back to the hospital, death during admission, delirium, loss of consciousness, or other major event).
Specificity for recognition of a safety compositeFrom admission to discharge, on average 5 daysThe specificity (true negatives divided by condition negatives) for detection of a safety composite (overnight visit, extra unplanned visit, transfer back to the hospital, death during admission, delirium, loss of consciousness, or other major event).
Positive predictive value for recognition of a safety compositeFrom admission to discharge, on average 5 daysThe positive predictive value (true positives divided by the sum of true positives plus false positives) for detection of a safety composite (overnight visit, extra unplanned visit, transfer back to the hospital, death during admission, delirium, loss of consciousness, or other major event).
Negative predictive value for recognition of a safety compositeFrom admission to discharge, on average 5 daysThe negative predictive value (true negatives divided by the sum of true negatives plus false negatives) for detection of a safety composite (overnight visit, extra unplanned visit, transfer back to the hospital, death during admission, delirium, loss of consciousness, or other major event).
Rate of alarms with clinical utilityFrom admission to discharge, on average 5 daysWe will use general estimating equations (GEE) with three outcomes per patient (the number of clinically important alarms for BioVitals, NEWS2, and traditional vital signs); the GEE will account for the clustering between the three outcomes on a patient. The GEE will use a negative binomial marginal model with a log-link for the number of alarms with clinical utility and an offset for log length-of stay (in hours); with this model, we model the rate per hour of number of alarms with clinical utility with BI, NEWS2, and traditional vital signs. The main covariate in the negative binomial model will be a three-level covariate for method: BI vs NEWS2 vs traditional vital signs, and the exponential of the effect of this covariate will be a pair-wise rate ratio for BI vs NEWS2 vs traditional vital signs.

Countries

United States

Contacts

PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATORDavid Levine, MD MPH MA

Associate Physician

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Mar 18, 2026