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Evaluation of Surgical Risk Prediction Tools.

A Multicenter Comparison of Risk Prediction Tools for Emergency Laparotomy in Greece

Status
Completed
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT04615520
Enrollment
660
Registered
2020-11-04
Start date
2020-05-01
Completion date
2021-08-01
Last updated
2021-12-28

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Emergency Laparotomy

Keywords

emergency laparotomy, risk prediction, postoperative mortality, NELA, ACS-risk calculator, POSSUM

Brief summary

Introduction: In modern surgery, the prediction of perioperative death gains significant importance due to the availability of treatment options, means of improving the surgical outcome and for proper patient information. However, patient heterogeneity and the existence of multiple risk prediction tools complicate the prediction of perioperative mortality. Thus, prognostic tools are developed based on the analysis of preoperative variables. Most commonly used models are POSSUM, ACS-NSQIP, NELA and POTTER. The models have been assessed in West-European and North-American populations, each with different prognostic value. Aim: Comparative analysis of predictive accuracy of the aforementioned risk prediction tools in Greek population. Materials and Methods: The study is multicenter, non-interventional, prospective and observational and includes patients undergoing emergency laparotomies of general surgery. In cases of multiple operations in one hospitalization, the first operation is included. The clinical-laboratory variables, derived from POSSUM, NELA, ACS-NSQIP and POTTER models are recorded anonymously in a secure online database, REDCap (Research Electronic Data Capture).The minimum estimated number of included patients in order to accomplish statistically significant results is 600. Each of the centers submitted in the study, is expected to include approximately 60 patients in a period of 6-12 months. For the statistical analysis of data, Brier Score will be used and ROC with statistical significance lower than 0.05. Conclusions: Upon completion of this study, the most accurate perioperative risk prediction tool in the Greek population is expected to be proposed.

Interventions

None listed

Sponsors

Nicosia General Hospital
CollaboratorOTHER
Laikο General Hospital, Athens
CollaboratorOTHER
Attikon Hospital
CollaboratorOTHER
Evangelismos Hospital
CollaboratorOTHER
Trikala General Hospital, Trikala
CollaboratorUNKNOWN
Ippokrateio General Hospital of Thessaloniki
CollaboratorOTHER
General Hospital of Volos
CollaboratorOTHER
General University Hospital of Patras
CollaboratorOTHER
University Hospital, Ioannina
CollaboratorOTHER
University Hospital of Crete
Lead SponsorOTHER

Study design

Observational model
COHORT
Time perspective
PROSPECTIVE

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Age
18 Years to No maximum
Healthy volunteers
No

Inclusion criteria

* Age \>18yrs * Emergency laparotomy (operation simultaneously with resuscitation usually within one hour) or urgent (operation as soon as possible after resuscitation, within 24hrs) * Operation in the gastrointestinal tract: * Open or laparoscopic, or laparoscopically assisted procedures. * Procedures involving the stomach, small or large bowel, or rectum for conditions such as perforation, ischaemia, abdominal abscess, bleeding or obstruction * Wash out/evacuation of intraperitoneal abscess or haematoma * Bowel resection/repair due to incarcerated/incisional hernias * Bowel resection or repair due to incarcerated umbilical, inguinal or femoral hernias * Open or laparoscopic adhesiolysis * Laparotomy/laparoscopy with inoperable pathology * Return to theatre for repair of a substantial dehiscence of major abdominal wound (i.e. burst abdomen) * Return to theatre after any operation (including vascular, gynecology, urology, cardiac) meeting the criteria above * In the case of multiple procedures in the abdominopelvic cavity the patient is included if the main procedure is a general surgical one (i.e. if bowel resection happens during an open aneurysm repair it should not be included) * Any intra-abdominal procedure not identifiable within

Exclusion criteria

should be included.

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Number of deaths within 30 days from emergency laparotomy30 days after emergency laparotomyPatients who died of any cause within 30 days from emergency laparotomy

Countries

Greece

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Feb 4, 2026