COVID-19 Risk Stratification

Coronavirus, Coronavirus Sars-Associated as Cause of Disease Classified Elsewhere

The investigators seek to derive and validate a clinically useful risk score for patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 to aide clinicians in the safe discharge of patients.

The investigators a-priori plan the following analysis: 1. Derivation and Retrospective Validation. * Select all adult patients with a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 beginning March 1, 2020 until approximately 1000 patients are included. * Use 75% of this cohort to develop a simple risk-score that prognosticates a patient's suitability for discharge (no supplemental oxygen, no intensive care unit, and no death). Use multivariable logistic regression with forward selection informed by clinical judgement to choose variables a priori that emphasizes readily available data and easy calculation for use at the point of care. * Use 25% of this cohort to retrospectively validate the risk-score. 2. Prospective Validation. * Select all adult patients with a positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 as soon as the derivation cohort in step 1 is assembled. Include approximately 250 patients. * Use this sample to prospectively validate the risk-score developed in part 1.

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United States