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The Surprise Study

An Online International Comparison of Thresholds for Triggering a Negative Response to the Surprise Question

Status
Completed
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT03697213
Enrollment
250
Registered
2018-10-05
Start date
2019-03-25
Completion date
2020-03-01
Last updated
2020-03-27

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Palliative Care, Terminal Illness

Keywords

Surprise Question, Prognostication

Brief summary

This study investigates the use of the Surprise Question \[SQ\] (would you be surprised if this patient were to die in the next 12 months?) in routine practice. In particular, the study will investigate the consistency of the responses to the SQ and the relationship with the subsequent course of action decided upon.

Detailed description

Whilst the original use of the Surprise Question was to identify people who might be in the last year of life and benefit from palliative care, the prognostic capability of the Surprise Question has been shown to be variable. What is unclear, is the extent to which a doctor should be surprised before a patient is suitable for palliative care, how consistently doctors respond to this question, and how the subsequent treatment decision relates to the SQ response. The study will recruit 600 General Practitioners (GPs) from 6 participating countries (100 per country; UK, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands). Each participant will asked to complete a series of 20 hypothetical patient summaries in an online task.

Interventions

OTHEROnline study

20 hypothetical patient summaries

Sponsors

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
CollaboratorOTHER
Radboud University Medical Center
CollaboratorOTHER
University of Bern
CollaboratorOTHER
Imperial College London
CollaboratorOTHER
Universiteit Antwerpen
CollaboratorOTHER
University of Bologna
CollaboratorOTHER
University College, London
Lead SponsorOTHER

Study design

Observational model
COHORT
Time perspective
CROSS_SECTIONAL

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Age
18 Years to No maximum
Healthy volunteers
Yes

Inclusion criteria

* Registered General Practitioner in one of the six participating countries * Able to read and understand the language in which the questionnaire is presented to them

Exclusion criteria

* None

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Probability estimateParticipants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide an estimate for each vignette (n=20)The continuous estimate of probability of dying within the next 12 months for the SQ (0-100%).

Secondary

MeasureTime frameDescription
The Surprise Questionup to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)Dichotomous response to the SQ (Yes/No)
The alternative Surprise Questionup to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)Dichotomous response to the alternative SQ (Yes/No)
Treatment optionsup to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)The options for the course of action selected by the participants in each vignette

Countries

Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland, United Kingdom

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Feb 21, 2026