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Use of Predictive Modeling to Improve Operating Room Scheduling Efficiency

Use of Predictive Modeling to Improve Operating Room Scheduling Efficiency

Status
Completed
Phases
NA
Study type
Interventional
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT01892865
Enrollment
735
Registered
2013-07-08
Start date
2013-08-31
Completion date
2016-07-31
Last updated
2018-01-02

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Operating Room Scheduling

Keywords

Operating room utilization

Brief summary

This study compares two different methodologies of scheduling cases in the operating room.

Detailed description

The goal of the proposed study is to address the efficacy of a scheduling methodology that uses a regression-based predictive modeling system (PMS) to calculate operative and anesthetic time length. The investigators hypothesize that compared to the traditional scheduling system (TSS) that calculate operative length using historic means, case allocation in an operating room using the PMS will improve scheduling precision, increase operative volume and increase Operative Suite (OS) personnel satisfaction, without having adverse impact on patient outcomes. The investigators will evaluate this hypothesis using a randomized block design in two operating rooms of a single surgical specialty for a total of 100 operative days per arm.

Interventions

OTHERScheduling using historical means

Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time

OTHERScheduling using regression modeling system

A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length

Sponsors

VA Office of Research and Development
Lead SponsorFED

Study design

Allocation
RANDOMIZED
Intervention model
PARALLEL
Primary purpose
HEALTH_SERVICES_RESEARCH
Masking
QUADRUPLE (Subject, Caregiver, Investigator, Outcomes Assessor)

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Healthy volunteers
No

Inclusion criteria

* The only requirement for including a day in the study will be that all the procedures performed in that specific day have been previously performed in our hospital at least 5 times a year for each of the last three years. This rule will encompass the vast majority of the performed vascular procedures in our facility. Setting the threshold at a minimum of 5 cases per year is essential to assure that some data will be available to calculate the expected length of the case with either the traditional or the predictive modeling system. If a case is performed in a day when the scheduling imprecision is supposed to be calculated using the PMS but modeling data do not exist, then the anticipated length of this case will be calculated using the historic means. * Surgery cancellation after the first case will not disqualify that day from inclusion in the study. If the cancellation occurs in the last case of the sequence for the specific day then no particular intervention will be taken. The anticipated end of the surgical day will reset to the end of the last case that took place, and all the imprecision calculations will be performed as described below. If the cancellation occurs in one of the intermediate cases, then the end of the operative day will reset to reflect the removal of the cancelled case.

Exclusion criteria

A day will be excluded from the study when any of the following occur (based on historical data the investigators anticipate 10-15% of the operative days to meet the

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Difference Between the Actual and Predicted Length of Operative Day (in Minutes)Three yearsThe scheduling imprecision between the two scheduling approaches will be compared. Scheduling imprecision is defined as the difference between the actual and predicted length of operative day.

Secondary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Difference in ThroughputThree yearsDifference in total number of cases scheduled per unit of time analyzed between the two study arms
Operative Suite Personnel Job SatisfactionThree yearsComparison of job satisfaction between study arms using three domains of the Maslach Burnout Inventory: Depersonalization (range 0-17, score of 17 indicates worse depersonalization). Emotional Exhaustion (range: 0-36, score of 36 is the worse). Personal accomplishment (range 1-60, score of 60 is best).
Complications: A Composite Endpoint of Death, Myocardial Infarction, Bleeding, AmputationThree yearsComparison of the perioperative (30-day postoperative) composite endpoint of death, myocardial infarction, bleeding, amputation between the two study groups

Countries

United States

Participant flow

Recruitment details

Calendar days during which vascular surgery operations were performed were randomly scheduled using either the Historical Means or the Predictive Modeling System methodologies. Please, note that unit of randomization was operative days, not patients

Pre-assignment details

Operative days that were on holidays, or when staff surgeons were out of town were excluded. Similarly, did not schedule any cases during the re-calibration of the predictive models

Participants by arm

ArmCount
Historical Means Method
Scheduling using historical means: Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time
356
Historical Means Method
Scheduling using historical means: Scheduling will be performed taking into account historical means only for anesthetic, operative, and turn around time
107
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)
Scheduling using regression modeling system: A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length
379
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)
Scheduling using regression modeling system: A regression model that uses predictor of operative length will be used to predict operative, anesthetic, and turn around time length
100
Total942

Baseline characteristics

CharacteristicHistorical Means MethodPredictive Modeling System (PMS)Total
Age, Customized62 Years
STANDARD_DEVIATION 8
62.5 Years
STANDARD_DEVIATION 10
62.5 Years
STANDARD_DEVIATION 10
Available operative days for randomization107 Operative Days100 Operative Days207 Operative Days
Sex/Gender, Customized
Sex
Females
5 Participants6 Participants11 Participants
Sex/Gender, Customized
Sex
Males
351 Participants373 Participants724 Participants

Adverse events

Event typeEG000
affected / at risk
EG001
affected / at risk
deaths
Total, all-cause mortality
— / —— / —
other
Total, other adverse events
0 / 00 / 0
serious
Total, serious adverse events
0 / 00 / 0

Outcome results

Primary

Difference Between the Actual and Predicted Length of Operative Day (in Minutes)

The scheduling imprecision between the two scheduling approaches will be compared. Scheduling imprecision is defined as the difference between the actual and predicted length of operative day.

Time frame: Three years

Population: We analyzed data from 107 operative days in the HM arm, and 100 days in the PMS arm

ArmMeasureValue (MEAN)Dispersion
Historical Means MethodDifference Between the Actual and Predicted Length of Operative Day (in Minutes)30.8 MinutesStandard Deviation 99
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)Difference Between the Actual and Predicted Length of Operative Day (in Minutes)7.2 MinutesStandard Deviation 67
Comparison: The null hypothesis was that there would be no difference in predictive imprecision for the end of the operative day between the two armsp-value: 0.02495% CI: [3.15, 44]t-test, 2 sided
Comparison: Null hypothesis: There would be no difference in throughput between the two armsp-value: 0.0495% CI: [1.01, 1.34]Poisson regression
Secondary

Complications: A Composite Endpoint of Death, Myocardial Infarction, Bleeding, Amputation

Comparison of the perioperative (30-day postoperative) composite endpoint of death, myocardial infarction, bleeding, amputation between the two study groups

Time frame: Three years

Population: Patients

ArmMeasureValue (COUNT_OF_PARTICIPANTS)
Historical Means MethodComplications: A Composite Endpoint of Death, Myocardial Infarction, Bleeding, Amputation8 Participants
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)Complications: A Composite Endpoint of Death, Myocardial Infarction, Bleeding, Amputation12 Participants
Comparison: Null hypothesis was that there would be no difference in the adverse event rates between the two scheduling methodologiesp-value: 0.44Chi-squared
Secondary

Difference in Throughput

Difference in total number of cases scheduled per unit of time analyzed between the two study arms

Time frame: Three years

Population: Operative days

ArmMeasureValue (NUMBER)
Historical Means MethodDifference in Throughput3.33 Operations/day analyzed
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)Difference in Throughput3.79 Operations/day analyzed
Comparison: Null hypothesis was that there was no difference in throughput between the two scheduling methodsp-value: 0.0495% CI: [1.01, 1.34]Poisson Regression
Secondary

Operative Suite Personnel Job Satisfaction

Comparison of job satisfaction between study arms using three domains of the Maslach Burnout Inventory: Depersonalization (range 0-17, score of 17 indicates worse depersonalization). Emotional Exhaustion (range: 0-36, score of 36 is the worse). Personal accomplishment (range 1-60, score of 60 is best).

Time frame: Three years

Population: Health care providers

ArmMeasureGroupValue (MEAN)
Historical Means MethodOperative Suite Personnel Job SatisfactionDepersonalization3.23 units on a scale
Historical Means MethodOperative Suite Personnel Job SatisfactionEmotional Exhaustion11.82 units on a scale
Historical Means MethodOperative Suite Personnel Job SatisfactionPersonal Accomplishment37.51 units on a scale
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)Operative Suite Personnel Job SatisfactionDepersonalization2.04 units on a scale
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)Operative Suite Personnel Job SatisfactionEmotional Exhaustion10.03 units on a scale
Predictive Modeling System (PMS)Operative Suite Personnel Job SatisfactionPersonal Accomplishment40.47 units on a scale
Comparison: Null hypothesis: There would be no difference in personnel satisfaction between the groupsp-value: 0.04t-test, 2 sided

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Feb 4, 2026