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Doctors' Understanding of Survival Statistics

Study of Primary Care Physicians' Understanding and Use of Different Survival Measures

Status
Completed
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ClinicalTrials.gov
Registry ID
NCT00981019
Acronym
MPIB
Enrollment
778
Registered
2009-09-22
Start date
2009-12-31
Completion date
2009-12-31
Last updated
2011-08-15

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Screening

Keywords

survival rates, risk communication, screening counselling, screening recommendation, understanding of medical risk

Brief summary

The probably most commonly used measure for expressing the pay-offs of early detection and treatment are survival rates. Yet, over time and groups this metric comes with several biases and thus, is not reliable for judging such benefits. Epidemiologists recommend using reduction of disease-specific mortality rates instead, which is unbiased. The purpose of the study is to investigate how primary care physicians understand and use different survival measures for determining the benefit of cancer screening tests.

Interventions

None listed

Sponsors

Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center
CollaboratorOTHER
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Lead SponsorOTHER

Study design

Observational model
ECOLOGIC_OR_COMMUNITY
Time perspective
PROSPECTIVE

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
ALL
Age
30 Years to 65 Years
Healthy volunteers
No

Inclusion criteria

* primary care physicians (internal, general, and family medicine physicians)

Exclusion criteria

* all other types of physicians

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Number of Physicians (=Participants) Recommending the Screening25 minutes (mean duration of the survey)The aim of the study was to learn how different medical cancer screening statistics would influence doctors' recommendation behavior and their effectiveness judgments of screening tests. For that reason the online survey study presented physicians with four different medical statistics (e.g., 5-year survival) within four successive scenarios and asked after each scenario whether they would recommend the screening to a (hypothetical) patient given the data. Options to answer are: Definitely yes, Probably yes, Probably no, Definitely no, Can't decide.

Secondary

MeasureTime frameDescription
Number of Physicians (= Participants) Assuming a Benefit of Screening25 minutes (mean duration of the survey)Physicians are faced with four different medical statistics about the effect of screening (e.g., 5-year survival) within four successive scenarios and after each scenario asked whether they assume the screening to be beneficial given the statistical information. Options to answer are: yes, no, can't decide. If yes, then participants are further asked to describe this benefit by the following categories: Very large, large, moderate, small, very small.

Countries

Germany

Participant flow

Recruitment details

Sample frame is the Harris Interactive Physician Panel Harris Interactive AG will draw a simple random sample U.S. internal and family medicine physicians from their Physician Panel and e-mail them an invitation and a link to the online-survey

Pre-assignment details

Inclusion criteria: Physicians in internal, family and general medicine. Exclusion criteria: All physicians other than internal, family and general medicine physicians are excluded from participation because these usually are not offering cancer screening to there patients in the setting of primary care

Participants by arm

ArmCount
Mortality*Incidence*5-year Survival*Early Detection Rate
The study-conducted as an online survey study-investigated the influence that different medical statistics such as 5-year survival rates would have on physicians' recommendation behavior for screening and on their judgment of screening's effectiveness. The survey introduced hypothetical scenarios in which a hypothetical patient was requesting a physician's advice on whether to have a screening test. To make that decision the participants (=physicians) were presented with different statistics and then asked if they would recommend the screening to the hypothetical patient and how effective they think the screening would be in reducing cancer mortality. The online survey did not ask any sensitive data.
778
Total778

Withdrawals & dropouts

PeriodReasonFG000
Overall StudyDid not match target population94
Overall StudyDid not respond65
Overall StudyHit the survey after closure79
Overall StudyInadvertent exclusion239

Baseline characteristics

CharacteristicMortality*Incidence*5-year Survival*Early Detection Rate
Age, Categorical
<=18 years
0 Participants
Age, Categorical
>=65 years
0 Participants
Age, Categorical
Between 18 and 65 years
778 Participants
Age Continuous49 years
STANDARD_DEVIATION 11.6
Region of Enrollment
United States
778 participants
Sex: Female, Male
Female
158 Participants
Sex: Female, Male
Male
620 Participants

Adverse events

Event typeEG000
affected / at risk
deaths
Total, all-cause mortality
— / —
other
Total, other adverse events
0 / 0
serious
Total, serious adverse events
0 / 0

Outcome results

Primary

Number of Physicians (=Participants) Recommending the Screening

The aim of the study was to learn how different medical cancer screening statistics would influence doctors' recommendation behavior and their effectiveness judgments of screening tests. For that reason the online survey study presented physicians with four different medical statistics (e.g., 5-year survival) within four successive scenarios and asked after each scenario whether they would recommend the screening to a (hypothetical) patient given the data. Options to answer are: Definitely yes, Probably yes, Probably no, Definitely no, Can't decide.

Time frame: 25 minutes (mean duration of the survey)

Population: We calculated that a sample size of 300 physicians was needed to have 90% power to detect differences of 20% or higher in the proportion of respondents correctly answering questions about the different cancer statistics (2-sided alpha of .05).

ArmMeasureValue (NUMBER)
Mortality*Incidence*5-year Survival*Early Detection RateNumber of Physicians (=Participants) Recommending the Screening301 participants
Comparison: Study was exploratory, thus no hypotheses had been formalized beforehand.~To analyze repeated measures outcomes (e.g., effect of the four different statistic scenarios on doctors' recommendation of screening, their judgment of screening's effectiveness, etc.), we used the McNemar chi-square test and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test.~To test for order effects (scenarios were randomly presented)Pearson's chi-square test and the Mann-Whitney U test were used.p-value: <0.05Chi-squared
Secondary

Number of Physicians (= Participants) Assuming a Benefit of Screening

Physicians are faced with four different medical statistics about the effect of screening (e.g., 5-year survival) within four successive scenarios and after each scenario asked whether they assume the screening to be beneficial given the statistical information. Options to answer are: yes, no, can't decide. If yes, then participants are further asked to describe this benefit by the following categories: Very large, large, moderate, small, very small.

Time frame: 25 minutes (mean duration of the survey)

Source: ClinicalTrials.gov · Data processed: Mar 26, 2026