Development of a scoring system to predict risk of death in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requiring assisted ventilation.

Derivation of a novel scoring system to predict inpatient mortality in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease requiring assisted ventilation.

Status

Active, not recruiting

Phases

Unknown

Study type

Observational

Source

ISRCTN

Registry ID

ISRCTN16977236

Enrollment

425

Registered

2015-08-07

Start date

2015-07-01

Completion date

Unknown

Last updated

2022-11-14

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Respiratory Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Interventions

Consecutive patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) requiring assisted ventilation will be identified. Indices including

socio-demographic data, biochemical, clinical data and functional status will be collected. Variables related to mortality on univariate analysis will be identified. Eligible variables will be entered

Eligibility

Sex/Gender

All

Inclusion criteria

Inclusion criteria: 1. Aged over 35 years 2. Smoking history greater than or equal to 10 pack years 3. Obstructive spirometry (FEV1/FVC 6.0)

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion criteria: 1. Previous inclusion in the study 2. Other illness likely to limit survival to less than 1 year

Design outcomes

Primary

Measure	Time frame
Prediction of in-hospital mortality within the derivation cohort, assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for tools developed using: 1. Indices available on admission 2. All indices up to and including the time of deterioration	—

Secondary

Measure	Time frame
1. Comparison of the AUROC curves for both novel tools 2. Comparison of the AUROC curves for both novel tools to CAPS and APACHE II 3. 30 day, 90 day, 180 day and 1 year mortality 4. 30 and 90 day readmission rates 5. Comparison of outcomes in patients with, and without pre-defined characteristics: 5.1. Late failure of NIV (recurrent respiratory acidaemia, despite on-going ventilatory support) 5.2. Persistent hypercapnia 5.3. Long-term oxygen therapy 5.4. Long-term ventilation on discharge	—

Measure

Time frame

1. Comparison of the AUROC curves for both novel tools 2. Comparison of the AUROC curves for both novel tools to CAPS and APACHE II 3. 30 day, 90 day, 180 day and 1 year mortality 4. 30 and 90 day readmission rates 5. Comparison of outcomes in patients with, and without pre-defined characteristics: 5.1. Late failure of NIV (recurrent respiratory acidaemia, despite on-going ventilatory support) 5.2. Persistent hypercapnia 5.3. Long-term oxygen therapy 5.4. Long-term ventilation on discharge

—

Countries

England, United Kingdom

Contacts

Public ContactTom Hartley

tom.hartley@nhct.nhs.uk+44 (0)444 811 8111

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ISRCTN (via WHO ICTRP) · Data processed: Feb 4, 2026