Skip to content

Construction and validation of a prediction model for bleeding risk and mortality risk in patients with liver cirrhosis and esophageal and gastric varices

Construction and validation of a prediction model for bleeding risk and mortality risk in patients with liver cirrhosis and esophageal and gastric varices

Status
Active, not recruiting
Phases
Unknown
Study type
Observational
Source
ChiCTR
Registry ID
ChiCTR2500102028
Enrollment
Unknown
Registered
2025-05-07
Start date
2025-06-01
Completion date
Unknown
Last updated
2025-06-16

For informational purposes only — not medical advice. Sourced from public registries and may not reflect the latest updates. Terms

Conditions

Cirrhosis

Interventions

Case group (Patients with confirmed cirrhosis, esophageal and gastric varices, and no bleeding or death occurred):None

Sponsors

Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University
Lead Sponsor

Eligibility

Sex/Gender
All
Age
18 Years to 75 Years

Inclusion criteria

Inclusion criteria: 1.Patients with confirmed cirrhosis: meet clinical diagnostic criteria or confirm cirrhosis by imaging (e.g., ultrasound, CT, or MRI) or liver biopsy. 2.Presence of esophageal or gastric varices: patients with endoscopically confirmed esophageal or gastric varices. 3.Age: Adult patients between the ages of 18-75 years. 4.Follow-up records: at least half a year of follow-up records (including records of bleeding events, death events, or other adverse outcomes, for the validation of risk prediction models. );

Exclusion criteria

Exclusion criteria: 1.Patients with other malignancies: patients with comorbid malignancies (e.g., cancers other than liver cancer) may affect survival and bleeding risk, thus interfering with the predictive accuracy of the model. 2.Combined with other serious chronic diseases, such as severe heart and lung diseases, renal failure, etc., may significantly affect the prognosis of patients and lead to confusion about the risk of death. 3.Incomplete clinical data: Patient key clinical data, laboratory indicators, imaging test results, or follow-up data are missing, resulting in incomplete data analysis and risk assessment. 4.Pregnant or lactating women: physiological and pathological status during pregnancy and lactation may be specific, and such patients are generally excluded for ethical reasons. 5.Patients lost to follow-up: lost to follow-up during follow-up, lacking the necessary data on bleeding or death events to be used for the training and validation of predictive models. 6.Patients with portal hypertension due to other liver diseases: including portal hypertension caused by idiopathic portal hypertension, Budd-Chiari syndrome and other non-cirrhosis causes, to ensure the homogeneity of the study subjects and avoid confounding the analysis results.

Design outcomes

Primary

MeasureTime frame
Occurrence of bleeding events;Occurrence of death events;

Secondary

MeasureTime frame
Quality of life assessment;Biomarker changes;Therapeutic interventions;Frequency and duration of hospitalization;

Countries

China

Contacts

Public ContactYupingYang

Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University

yangyupingchn@163.com+86 135 3506 7921

Outcome results

None listed

Source: ChiCTR (via WHO ICTRP) · Data processed: Feb 4, 2026